Note that each phase of the concept evaluation process culminates with a prediction of behavior resulting from the concept so that the same measurement standards are used throughout the concept evolution process until a concept is fully prepared with a marketing plan, positioning strategy, distribution strategy and so forth to deliver of estimated unit sales.

The general framework for our methodology at each stage can be represented as:

Our approach represents a systematical and methodical process of evaluating concepts on the same set of criteria from the first step in the process through the last. Note that each step in the process employs volumetric forecasting to help differentiate between the most promising candidates to take to the next stage of development. Within the Category Screen and Feature Optimization we additionally use TURF analysis to help identify the minimum set of concepts for further development which identifies the minimum number of concepts required to appeal to the maximum number of buyers, thereby provide an additional level of control over controlling R&D costs.

Is this process accurate? It has been validate to be within at least ±10% points of actual volume 90% of the time.

As important is the fact that full-fledged volumetric forecasts are excellent diagnostic tools to help identify how the various elements of the marketing plan can be improved. Because our volume forecasts are the result of a modeling process we can provide insights into alternative outcomes resulting from the following types of diagnostic information.

  • Buyer/non-buyer profiles
  • Source of volume (cannibalizations from home and competitive brands as well as market expansion)
  • Optimization of the marketing plan with respect to spend levels and media optimization

Our media optimization simulations cover all forms of media delivery vehicle from traditional measured media to social networks as illustrated in the following chart.

volumetric forecasting

Over the years, we have developed a list of the top 10 reasons for why so many new products fail:

  1. Having insufficient knowledge of buyer needs
  2. Targeting the wrong segment
  3. Selecting a less than an optimal product and pricing strategy
  4. Developing a positioning strategy that is not motivating to buyers
  5. Developing communications which are not sufficiently intrusive and persuasive
  6. Under spending in traditional and new media to achieve sufficient brand awareness
  7. Employing less than optimal research procedures/methodologies
  8. Not achieving sufficient product distribution
  9. Pursuing a less than optimal marketing plan mix
  10. Inability to test multiple marketing plans simultaneously

Other sections in the website provide research solutions which address problems 1-5. Volumetric forecasting addresses problems 6-10.

Our experience shows that product introductions are much more successful when each stage of the product development process applies the same decision rules to determine concept acceptance and rejection. To that end, our concept testing system culminates with full product sales forecasting, but working backwards applies the same decision criteria flowing backwards through the various stages of concept completeness as shown in the chart below.